February 24 this year marks the second anniversary of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. In the past century, after experiencing two world wars and boasting significant advancements in civilization, human society has once again witnessed a large-scale war persisting for two years since the beginning of the 21st century. According to the war reports from Russia and Ukraine, the casualties on both sides may exceed 800,000 to date. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the conflict between Hamas and Israel has been ongoing for nearly five months, with the death toll on both sides exceeding 30,000 people, with nearly 29,000 deaths in the Gaza Strip.
The simultaneous occurrence of these two wars has torn the world apart, compounded by anti-globalization and geopolitical competition, which greatly alter the global political and economic landscape. On February 17, Singapore’s Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen warned at the 60th Munich Security Conference (MSC) that wars have broken out successively in Europe and the Middle East. The world cannot afford to have three unstable war zones simultaneously, and every effort must be made to prevent conflicts in Asia. He also cautioned, “if indeed there is a conflict for whatever reason between US and China, I think we will have blighted our futures for the next, well, 10, 20, 30 years.”
Observers at the recently concluded MSC noted a prevailing sense of pessimism across Europe. Last year, Western nations held high expectations for Ukraine’s resistance against Russia. Providing military aid posed little challenge for the U.S. and Europe, with most Western countries staunchly opposing Russia. However, this year has seen a significant shift in the situation. Ukraine has encountered setbacks in the conflict, transitioning to a comprehensive defensive posture following failed counterattacks. During the MSC session, the Russian military seized control of the strategic town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. The struggles faced by Western nations in supporting Ukraine have become apparent; the U.S. Congress has postponed a bill allocating billions of dollars in military aid, and Europe struggles to meet the ammunition demands of the Ukrainian military. Adding to Western governments’ concerns is the growing traction of Donald Trump, who harbors skepticism towards NATO and opposes financial support for Ukraine. The prospect of Trump returning to the White House raises the risk of a halt in military assistance to Ukraine.
Ironically, six decades ago, Germany established the MSC to collaborate with the U.S. in countering the Soviet Union. Now, 60 years later, Europeans, including Germans, find themselves once again discussing strategies with Americans to counter Russia. While history appears to repeat itself, the mindset and motives of the key players have not been the same.
Germany serves as a case in point. Over 60 years ago, the Soviet Union, stronger than today’s Russia, posed a significant threat during the Cold War era. At that time, Germany was divided into West and East, yet West Germany proposed the concept of “change through rapprochement,” later forming the basis for Germany’s “Neue Ostpolitik” or new eastern policy. Political figures like Willy Brandt demonstrated historical initiative and confidence by adopting the Neue Ostpolitik to enhance relations with the Soviet Union, securing peace and development for Germany and Europe. Despite the existence of NATO and the European Union, Germany and other old European countries appear to lack the autonomy and confidence of the past. While a few “New Europe” nations display ambition and confidence, overall, European unity seems weakened and divided.
Compared to 60 years ago, Germany seems to lack the autonomy and confidence it once had. It is not just Germany, but other countries in old Europe also appear to be aging. Although there is the existence of the NATO military alliance and the European Union, European countries now seem more weakened and divided, with only a few “New Europe” countries showing more ambition and confidence.
From the performance of European countries at the MSC, it is evident that the fear of Russia has once again become a deep concern for European countries. Although European countries have expressed a unified hostility towards Russia, it does not demonstrate their actual unity. “Old European nations” like France, Spain, and Italy hold certain perspectives on Russia and the ongoing war, whereas “New Europe” countries such as Poland and the Baltic states hold contrasting views. Additionally, countries like Hungary exhibit a strong inclination towards Russia. Given the European Union’s struggle to coordinate efficient and unified responses, the EU’s large and cumbersome structure is likely to encounter further division and decline.
Similar to the two World Wars, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has once again unfolded on European soil. This not only jeopardizes Europe’s security but also imposes ongoing economic burdens. Moreover, the concurrent conflict in the Middle East, particularly the Hamas-Israel war, directly impacts Europe’s economy. The disruption of trade routes from Asia to Europe and the Americas due to the Red Sea crisis exacerbates these economic challenges.
The deepening decline and division within Europe may complicate its engagement in international politics and economic cooperation. As it stands, the world must prepare for a Europe that is now undergoing a gradual decline.